Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
